CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 16/12 - 06Z WED 17/12 2003
ISSUED: 15/12 21:37Z
FORECASTER: HAKLANDER

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Atlantic (NW of the Iberian Peninsula), the NRN Alps, the ERN Mediterranean countries, the Black Sea and ERN Ukraine.

SYNOPSIS

During the FCST period, a longwave upper flow pattern slowly shifts EWD. At TUE/06Z, an upper trough over ERN Europe extends SWD across the Baltic States towards SRN Italy. This upper trough should lie across WRN Ukraine and the Aegean Sea by WED/06Z. Towards the end of the FCST period, an Atlantic upper trough approaches the Iberian Peninsula. In between, an upper ridge is dominant across the British Isles.

DISCUSSION

...Aegean Sea...
A shortwave upper trough, embedded in a strong SSWLY flow east of the upper trough, is expected to yield strong UVM in a very weak CAPE environment. Because of the quasi-linear forcing associated with this feature, sustained convection could occur. However, owing to weak CAPE and weak low-level shear, thunderstorms are expected to remain non-severe.

#